Sports Betting Payout Calculator
The Expected Value of a bet shows us how much we can expect to win (on average) per bet, and as such is the most valuable calculation a bettor can make when comparing bookmakers odds. How can you calculate Expected Value in sports betting in order to predict your winnings? Read on to find out.
Expected Value
- Calculating Payouts From Moneyline Odds. In the United States, most bookmakers use the moneyline format to express the odds they offer for wagers. Thus, moneyline odds are also commonly referred to as American odds. They can be either a positive number or a negative number.
- For example if you are betting -200 favorites you will need to win 67% of your bets (2 in every 3) just to break even. I hope you find this sports betting odds calculator helpful and feel free to link out to your calculations in any forums you use, with your friends, or on your own blog if you have one.
The amount a player can expect to win or lose if they were to place a bet on the same odds many times over, calculated through a simple equation multiplying your probability of winning with the amount you could win per bet, and subtracting the probability of losing multiplied by the amount lost per bet.
Our Bet Calculator automatically calculates your Payout, making it easy to see your returns. Use it as a point spread calculator, moneyline calculator and odds for other markets. Simply select the Odds Format and enter the Stake and Odds. The Bet Calculator will then automatically calculate the Payout. Click Add Odds for Multiples. Decimal Odds In Sports Betting Decimal odds are the easiest to calculate compared to other odds types. Bettors just need to take their stake x odds to equal their payout amount. For instance, if you bet $100. Note 1: The calculator accepts US or decimal odds. For Decimal odds greater than or equal to 100, preface the odds with either a “0” or a “d”. Sports betting fans can enter their hedge.
A simple example of Expected Value (EV) put into practice - if you were to bet $10 on heads in a coin toss, and you were to receive $11 every time you got it right, the EV would be 0.5.
This means that if you were to make the same bet on heads over and over again, you can expect to win an average of $0.50 for each bet of $10.
How to Calculate Expected Value
The formula for calculating Expected Value is relatively easy – simply multiply your probability of winning with the amount you could win per bet, and subtract the probability of losing multiplied by the amount lost per bet:
(Probability of Winning) x (Amount Won per Bet) – (Probability of Losing) x (Amount Lost per Bet)
To calculate the expected value for sports betting, you can fill in the above formula with decimals odds with a few calculations:
- Find the decimal odds for each outcome (win, lose, draw)
- Calculate the potential winnings for each outcome by multiplying your stake by the decimal, and then subtract the stake.
- Divide 1 by the odds of an outcome to calculate the probability of that outcome
- Substitute this information into the above formula.
For example, when Manchester United (1.263) play Wigan (13.500), with a draw at 6.500, a bet of $10 on Wigan to win would provide potential winnings of $125, with the probability of that happening at 0.074 or 7.4%.
How To Calculate Odds Payout
The probability of this outcome not occurring is the sum of Man Utd and a draw, or 0.792 + 0.154 = 0.946. The amount lost per bet is the initial wager – $10. Therefore the complete formula looks like:
The EV is negative for this bet, suggesting that you will lose an average of $0.20 for every $10 staked.
How Does Expected Value for Sports Betting Help?
Remember, a negative EV doesn’t mean you’re going to lose money. Unlike a coin toss, sports betting odds are subjective, and therefore if you outsmart the bookmaker, you’re likely to make money.
If you calculate your own probability for a match that differs from the implied probability of the odds, you could see where to find a positive EV, and therefore the best chance to win.
For example, the odds imply that Wigan only have a 7.4% chance of winning. If you calculate (maybe using a system like Poisson distribution) that Wigan has a 10% chance of winning, the EV for betting on a Wigan win jumps to $3.262.
Sports Betting Payout Calculator
It’s also a perfect measure for comparing odds in arbitrage betting, which is discussed in our article What is arbitrage betting.
Sports Betting Payout Calculator
Calculating the EV of bets gives bettors more information about the value of their bookmaker. While low-margin bookmakers like Pinnacle have EVs of around -$0.20, it’s not uncommon for typical bookmakers to have an EV of -$1.00 – for every $10 stake you would be likely to lose a $1 .
How bookmakers make money video explainer
Found this article useful? Why not check out our video that details how to find value.
If you want to watch more educational betting videos, subscribe to the Pinnacle YouTube channel!
How does the arbitrage calculator work?
Our arbitrage calculator allows you to enter the odds of two (or more) different bets to determine how much you should stake on each to guarantee a profit.
Use the Arbitrage Calculator here
Enter Odds & Stake
Stake
Stake Bet 1
Stake Bet 2
$0.00
Payout
Payout Bet 1
Payout Bet 2
$0.00
What is an arbitrage bet?
An arbitrage (or arb for short) also known as 'surebets', 'surewins' and 'miraclebets' are bet types whereby a bettor wagers on a series of events that guarantees a profit no matter the outcome of a given event, or at worst, guarantees that no money can be lost but money can still be won depending on the result of an event.
Arbitrage bets work by taking advantage of discrepancy in prices of the same event with different Sportsbooks in a way that can ensure the bettor can't lose money no matter the outcome of the event.
What is a sports arbitrage betting example?
Arbitrage opportunities can pop-up in betting markets for a variety of reasons, most commonly being a disagreement in Sportsbook opinions on a certain event.
For example, say an NBA game was being played between the Houston Rockets and the Cleveland Cavaliers. 'Sportsbook A' may open up their market at:
Houston Rockets $1.50 (e.g -200)
Cleveland Cavaliers $2.50 (e.g +150)
And 'Sportsbook B' may open up their market at:
Houston Rockets $1.80 (e.g -125)
Cleveland Cavaliers $2.20 (e.g +120)
You can see here, that there a discrepancy in the odds, or a disagreement between the sportsbooks over the winning chances of each team. In this scenario, the bettor could place $55.55 on the Houston Rockets with Sportsbook B, to receive a payout of $100 if Houston win and the bettor can place $40.00 on the Cleveland Cavaliers with Sportsbook A, to also receive a payout of $100 if Cleveland win.
In this scenario, no matter who wins the game, the bettor has outlaid $95.55, but will receive back $100 no matter what the outcome. This a sports betting arbitrage, an opportunity to guarantee yourself a profit no matter the result (e.g + to your bankroll!)
What are the risks associated with arbitrage betting?
Arbitrage betting can be very profitable as long as you demonstrate patience and capitalise on the many opportunities that arise every day. Where you can lose big amounts with online Sportsbooks is if you outlay large sums on a bet that potentially could be a sportsbook error. That is, imagine there is a bet that is $51 when it should be $1.01 and all other Sportsbooks have it as $1.01. You may then feel the urge to place an arbitrage on the $51 and their opponent at big odds as well on another Sportbook, and outlay large amounts assuming you are in for a massive payday. That is until the Sportsbook cancels the market that had an error (Sportsbooks may be able to do this even after the event has started, read their terms and conditions). You are then stuck in a situation where you have a large amount of money on a huge underdog. Stick to non-error arbitrage opportunties where there is generally a 1-5% guaranteed return. You can however place single bets on the sportsbook errors, because if they get cancelled, you get your money back.